I think 2024 is going to be a significant year for Mexico, so I’m going out on a limb to make some predictions for this year.
Below you’ll find my 17 predictions of the top news stories in Mexico this year. Please note that I am not expressing an opinion on whether these are good or bad things to come, but just my best guess at what will dominate the headlines.
- The nearshoring boom will continue to accelerate and Mexico will receive a record amount of foreign direct investment.
- One if not two Chinese auto companies will announce massive plant investments in Mexico.
- Increased discussion and tension will arise among USMCA partners (U.S., Canada, Mexico) over the rapidly increasing Chinese investment and imports into Mexico.
- The NBA will confirm that an expansion team will come to Mexico City.
- Claudia Sheinbaum will win the presidential election in a landslide.
- The Mexican peso will not move significantly in reaction to the election results (as it often does).
- The Maya Train project will be more positively viewed by the end of the year and increasingly be recognized as a strategically important investment for the region.
- The Tulum airport will receive a surprisingly high number of new flights and become a major flight destination.
- The Isthmus of Tehuantepec train will get increased interest and attention due to continued problems with the Panama canal.
- Mexico will become an increasingly important topic in the upcoming U.S. elections. Issues like immigration, fentanyl, and drug cartels will cause some candidates to threaten significant actions against the country.
- Despite the campaign rhetoric, Mexico will increase its lead and share as the largest trading partner of the United States.
- Tesla will accelerate its plant investment in Monterrey.
- The number of U.S. and Canadian citizens moving to Mexico will continue to accelerate.
- A record number of international tourists will come to Mexico.
- The Bank of Mexico will finally begin to lower interest rates in the first quarter of the year, which should weaken the peso gradually.
- The Mexican peso will end the year above 18 to the US dollar.
- Mexico will end 2024 as the 10th largest economy in the world (moving up 2 places from 2023 and 4 places from 2022).
What do you think? How many of my predictions do you agree or disagree with? In the spirit of dialogue and debate, I’d love to hear your thoughts in the comments.
Travis Bembenek is the CEO of Mexico News Daily and has been living, working or playing in Mexico for over 27 years.
I think and hope that you nailed it.
Well written and well thought out. Cheers
You make some good predictions here but I wish I could share your optimism. I agree with you that Claudia Sheinbaum will probably win by a landslide in the June elections because: a) She has had all the financial resources of the AMLO administration to back her campaign and b) her opponent has run out of steam too soon. Xóchitl Gálvez, had all the right credentials coming from a humble indigenous background turned educated and successful entrepreneur and Senator but she should have stuck with her initial plan to run as Mayor of CDMX and not for the Presidency where she is clearly out of her depth. And finally c) MORENA will do everything in its power to assure that it remains in office for another six years whether by fair means or foul in order to consolidate its agenda of destroying democracy by removing any possible counterbalances to ensure its survival (Electoral Tribunal, INAI, Supreme Court etc.) in its quest to establish an authoritarian one-party state. Sadly Mexico will not have any effective defenses in place to stop this. Look what happened when the new airport was cancelled before AMLO had even formally assumed office back in 2018. No institution was capable of reversing such an arbitrary move which will prove to be the cause of incalculable damage to Mexico’s future development as a major international communications hub as well as offering a decent first impression to anybody arriving at the door of world’s 14th most important economy.
I would also question all the positive hype about “Nearshoring”. Once a foreign investor realizes how the deck is stacked against him in a court of law added to the fact that deep down there is an institutional loathing of anything that smells remotely of private enterprise Mexico will be like a Ferrari with an empty gas tank (i.e. all the potential to succeed but at the same time an uncanny ability to shoot itself in the foot at every opportunity).
I’ve spent almost two thirds of my life in Latin America since leaving England in 1980 (aged 25). My work has taken me to every single country in Central and South America on multiple occasions. I’ve seen first hand how this movie ends in places like Nicaragua, Venezuela and Cuba and it’s never pretty. For all its shortcomings, I love this country and am proud to call Mexico my home. I only hope my fears are unfounded.